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The UK used car market is projected to see only modest growth in the coming years. Transactions are expected to rise from 7.4 million in 2024 to just under 7.9 million by 2027, according to Cox Automotive’s latest Insight Quarterly.
Projections for 2025, in terms of used car transactions, shows a marginal 0.3% increase on 2024 levels which suggests the market is lagging behind pre-pandemic trends and constrained by economic pressures and ongoing supply limitations.
Philip Nothard, Cox Automotive insight director, said: “Demand for used vehicles remains stable, but the UK car parc is contracting, and overall vehicle registrations and transactions continue to fall short of peak levels seen from 2002-2008 and 2014-2019.
“Our forecast highlights the enduring appeal of used vehicles but also emphasises the reality that this sector, like much of the broader automotive market, faces ongoing pressures as consumer priorities shift and the vehicle landscape continues to adapt.”
With more OEMs prioritising new energy vehicles (NEVs), the availability of traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles is expected to gradually decline.
The forecast predicts significant growth in NEV adoption within the used market, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increasing their share of transactions by over 50% in early 2024. While ICE vehicles still dominate, BEV registrations are expected to grow from 21% to 34% by 2027.
Modest declines in UK interest rates are expected over the next few years but inflation remains above historical averages. Affordability will be a primary factor shaping consumer decisions.
Over the next three years, the UK’s car parc is expected to decline by around 4.47%.